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    2016—2020年南昌市大气PM2.5短期暴露对人群循环系统疾病超额死亡的风险评估

    Risk assessment of circulatory disease excess mortality due to short-term atmospheric PM2.5 exposure in Nanchang, China, 2016-2020

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 评估南昌市大气PM2.5短期暴露所致人群循环系统疾病超额死亡的风险。
      方法 收集2016—2020年南昌市大气污染物、气象及死因监测资料，采用Poisson分布的广义相加模型分析PM2.5短期暴露对人群循环系统超额死亡的影响。
      结果 2016—2020年，南昌市PM2.5年均浓度为37.68μg/m3，循环系统疾病总死亡50 664人。PM2.5短期暴露所致全人群循环系统疾病超额死亡707人，占循环系统疾病死亡人数的1.40%，PM2.5每升高10μg/m3，男性、女性和≥64岁人群超额死亡危险度分别升高1.11%（95%CI：0.30%，1.92%）、1.64%（95%CI：0.79%，2.49%）和1.36%（95%CI：0.66%，2.07%）。
      结论 南昌市大气PM2.5浓度升高会增加男性、女性和65岁及以上人群循环系统疾病的超额死亡风险。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To investigate the risk of circulatory disease excess mortality due to short-term atmospheric PM2.5 exposure in Nanchang, China, from 2016 to 2020.
      Methods The data of air pollutants, meteorological factors and cause-of-death in Nanchang from 2016 to 2020 were collected. The generalized additive model of Poisson distribution was performed to analyze the influence of PM2.5 on excess mortality due to circulatory diseases.
      Results During 2016-2020, the mean annual mass concentration of PM2.5 in Nanchang was 37.68 μg/m3, and there were 50 664 deaths in total due to circulatory diseases. There were 707 circulatory disease excess deaths caused by short-term PM2.5 pollution in the whole population, accounting for 1.40% of total circulatory disease deaths, and for every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 mass concentration, the risk of excess mortality for those of male, female and aged ≥ 65 years was increased by 1.11% (95% CI: 0.30%, 1.92%), 1.64% (95% CI: 0.79%, 2.49%), and 1.36% (95% CI: 0.66%, 2.07%), respectively.
      Conclusion The increase of mass concentration of PM2.5 in Nanchang may increase the risk of circulatory disease mortality in the population of male, female and aged ≥ 65 years.

       

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