断点回归方法及应用实现

    Regression discontinuity methods and its application and implementation

    • 摘要:
      目的 完整、系统介绍断点回归设计(RDD)原理及统计方法, 为其在公共卫生领域应用提供参考。
      方法 在介绍断点回归设计原理基础上, 用室内甲醛干预的实例演示了利用Stata软件实现断点回归统计方法的过程, 介绍和比较属于参数法的多项式回归和属于非参数法的局部线性回归的分析方法和结果。
      结果 RDD是一种准实验设计, 对研究对象没有随机分组, 而是选择一个与干预措施有关的变量, 根据该变量的取值选择切点划分干预组和对照组。RDD在内部有效性方面优于其他准实验设计, 但外部有效性受到一定限制。基于观察性资料的RDD不仅可控制可观测的混杂因素, 还可控制无法观测的混杂因素, 也更符合伦理道德。在本文实例中, 多项式回归和局部线性回归两种分析方法的结果基本一致。
      结论 RDD在公共卫生领域的真实世界研究中有广阔的应用前景, 为科学评估干预政策和提供高质量决策依据提供新的思路和方法。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To provide a complete and systematic introduction to the principle and statistical analysis method of regression discontinuity design (RDD), and to provide a reference for its application in the field of public health.
      Methods Based on the introduction of RDD principle, the statistical analysis of RDD by Stata software was demonstrated with an example of formaldehyde intervention in indoor air. The analytical method and result of polynomial regression (parametric method) and local linear regression (nonparametric method) were introduced and compared.
      Results RDD is a quasi-experimental design without randomized grouping of the study subjects. Instead, a variable related to the intervention is selected, and the intervention and control groups are divided according to a cut-off value determined by the value of this variable. RDD was superior to other quasi-experimental designs in terms of internal validity but showed limited external validity. RDD based on observational information controls not only observable confounders but also unobservable confounders, rendering it a more ethical approach. In this example, polynomial regression and local linear regression analyses showed similar result.
      Conclusion RDD has a broad application in real-world public health research. Our result also provide new ideas and method for scientifically evaluating intervention policies and establishing a basis for high-quality decision-making.

       

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