污染物混合暴露的健康效应评估:统计方法演进与应用

    Health effects assessment of pollutant mixture exposure: methodological evolution and application

    • 摘要: 环境卫生研究的一个重要挑战是评估污染物混合暴露对健康的综合效应。传统单污染物模型难以有效应对高度相关、多因素交互及非线性关联的问题。因此,近年来逐渐发展了更先进的混合效应评估模型,如加权分位数和回归(weighted quantile sum regression,WQS)、分位数g计算(quantile g-computation,qgcomp)、贝叶斯核机器回归(Bayesian kernel machine regression,BKMR)和边际效应(margins)模型。WQS模型通过构建单一综合指数解决共线性问题,但要求所有暴露的效应方向一致;quantile g-computation则放宽此假设,更具灵活性;BKMR模型进一步突破参数限制,能精准刻画非线性关系与污染物间的交互作用;边际效应模型则提供情景化结果解释,以明确政策含义。本文系统梳理了四类混合暴露模型从线性简约到非线性交互的演进路径,强调边际效应分析在模型结果向政策情景转换中的桥接作用。

       

      Abstract: A critical challenge in environmental health research is the comprehensive assessment of health effects associated with exposure to multiple environmental pollutants. Traditional single-pollutant models are inadequate for exploring highly correlated, interactive, and non-linear relationships. Therefore, more advanced mixed effects models have been developed, including weighted quantile sum regression (WQS), quantile g-computation, Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), and margins. WQS model addresses collinearity by constructing a single composite index, but assuming that all pollutants act in the same direction. Quantile g-computation relaxes this assumption, offering greater flexibility for mixed-direction effects. BKMR, employing a Bayesian nonparametric approach, further transcends traditional parametric assumptions, effectively capturing complex non-linear and interactive relationships between pollutants. Margins analysis provides intuitive scenario-based interpretations to clarify policy implications. This paper systematically outlines the evolutionary trajectory of the four mixed exposure models, from linear simplifications to non-linear interactions. It is also to emphasize the bridging role of marginal effect analysis in translating statistical model result into concrete policy scenarios.

       

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