2013—2021年中国居民四类主要慢性非传染性疾病死亡水平和趋势分析

    Analysis of the mortality levels and trends of four major chronic non-communicable diseases among Chinese residents, 2013—2021

    • 摘要: 目的 分析2013—2021年中国居民四类主要慢性非传染性疾病(以下简称慢性病)死亡水平以及变化趋势,为制定更加精准有效的慢性病防控策略以及更精准的医疗配置提供科学依据。方法 2013—2021年中国四类主要慢性病(恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心脑血管疾病和慢性呼吸系统疾病)相关死亡数据来源于《中国死因监测数据集》,使用Joinpoint 5.2.0软件分析不同性别和地区居民四类主要慢性病的粗死亡率和标化死亡率的变化趋势,并计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)。结果 2021年,恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心脑血管疾病及慢性呼吸系统疾病的粗死亡率分别为164.20/10万、18.88/10万、353.31/10万、52.58/10万,合计为588.97/10万;标化死亡率分别为112.64/10万、12.37/10万、221.32/10万、31.77/10万,合计为380.89/10万。2013—2021年,恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心脑血管疾病及慢性呼吸系统疾病粗死亡率的AAPC分别为1.03%、5.79%、2.61%、-4.10%,合计为1.36%;标化死亡率的AAPC分别为-2.38%、2.51%、-1.31%、-8.30%,合计为-1.50%;在性别和城乡层面,2013—2021年四类主要慢性病标化死亡率变化趋势同总人群表现一致,男性恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病及慢性呼吸系统疾病及四类主要慢性病合计的标化死亡率均高于女性,女性糖尿病2013—2016年标化死亡率高于男性;城市恶性肿瘤标化死亡率在2014—2018年高于乡村,糖尿病标化死亡率高于农村,而心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病及四类慢性病合计标化死亡率均低于农村。结论 2013—2021年,中国慢性病防控取得了一定成效,恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病以及慢性呼吸系统疾病这三类疾病标化死亡率均有所下降,但心脑血管疾病粗死亡率和标化死亡率均处于较高水平,糖尿病的粗死亡率和标化死亡率均呈现上升趋势,应关注重点人群心脑血管疾病和糖尿病的防控。

       

      Abstract: Objective To analyze the mortality levels and trends of four major chronic non-communicable diseases (hereinafter referred to as chronic diseases) among Chinese residents from 2013 to 2021, and to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of more precise and effective chronic disease prevention and control strategies and more targeted medical resource allocation. Methods The mortality data of the four major chronic diseases (malignant tumors, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases) in China from 2013 to 2021 were obtained from the China Cause of Death Surveillance (CCDS) dataset. Joinpoint 5.2.0 was used for stratified analysis of the data for the changing trends in crude mortality rates (CMRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of the four chronic diseases among Chinese residents by gender and region. Meanwhile, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were also calculated. Results In 2021, the CMRs of malignant tumors, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases were 164.20/100 000, 18.88/100 000, 353.31/100 000, and 52.58/100 000, respectively, totaling 588.97/100 000; the SMRs were 112.64/100 000, 12.37/100 000, 221.32/100 000, and 31.77/100 000, respectively, totaling 380.89/100 000. From 2013 to 2021, the AAPCs for the CMRs of the above four chronic diseases were 1.03%, 5.79%, 2.61%, and -4.10%, respectively, totaling 1.36%; the AAPCs for the SMRs of the above four chronic diseases were -2.38%, 2.51%, -1.31%, and -8.30%, respectively, totaling -1.50%. When analyzed by gender and region (urban and rural areas), the changing trends in the SMRs of the four major chronic diseases from 2013 to 2021 were consistent with those of the total population, with males showing higher values than females in SMRs of malignant tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases, as well as the pooled SMR of the four major chronic diseases, but lower values than females in the SMR of diabetes mellitus from 2013 to 2016. The SMRs of malignant tumors in urban areas were higher than those in rural areas from 2014 to 2018, and the SMR of diabetes mellitus was higher than that in rural areas, while the SMRs of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases and the pooled SMRs of the four chronic diseases were lower than those in rural areas. Conclusion From 2013 to 2021, the prevention and control of chronic diseases have yielded positive outcomes, with the reduced SMRs of malignant tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases. However, the CMR and SMR of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases remained at a relatively high level, and the CMR and SMR of diabetes mellitus showed an increasing trend. These findings necessitate greater efforts in the prevention and control of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus in key populations.

       

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