2019—2023年北京市臭氧暴露与呼吸和循环系统疾病死亡风险关联及热浪修饰作用

    Impact of ozone exposure on respiratory and circulatory system diseases mortality and the potential role of heatwaves in Beijing, China, 2019—2023

    • 摘要:
      目的 评估北京市大气臭氧暴露与人群呼吸和循环系统疾病死亡的关系,并探讨热浪在其关联中的潜在修饰作用。
      方法 选取2019—2023年北京市每日空气污染物、气象和死因数据,采用时间序列分析方法评估每日八小时臭氧最大值(O3-8 h)暴露对人群呼吸和循环系统疾病死亡的单日和累积滞后效应,并根据性别、年龄和地区进行分层分析。进一步采用广义线性模型分析,探讨暖季中热浪暴露对O3-8 h与呼吸和循环系统疾病死亡关联的影响。
      结果 O3-8 h暴露对呼吸系统疾病死亡的单日滞后效应在lag3 d(RR=1.06, 95%CI: 1.02~1.10)时最大,累积滞后效应值在lag07 d(RR=1.36, 95%CI: 1.11~1.66)达到峰值。O3-8 h暴露对循环系统疾病死亡的单日滞后效应在lag0 d(RR=1.07, 95%CI: 1.03~1.12)时最大,累积滞后效应值在lag07 d(RR=1.19, 95%CI: 1.06~1.34)达到峰值。分层分析显示,老年人群、男性和城市居民所受影响较为显著,且热浪暴露时,与O3-8 h有关的循环系统疾病死亡风险更为显著。
      结论 臭氧短期暴露与北京市人群呼吸系统和循环系统疾病死亡风险升高存在关联,老年人群、男性和城市居民的敏感性更高,且热浪暴露时这种关联效应进一步增强。这一结果提示,臭氧暴露叠加高温天气时,需关注并加强对脆弱人群的公共卫生防护。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To evaluate the association between ambient ozone exposure and mortality from respiratory and circulatory system diseases in Beijing, and to explore the potential modifying effect of heatwaves on this relationship.
      Methods Daily data on air pollutants, meteorological factors, and causes of death in Beijing from 2019 to 2023 were collected. A time-series analysis was used to assess the single-day and cumulative lag effects of daily maximum 8-hour ozone concentration (O3-8 h) exposure on mortality from respiratory and circulatory system diseases. Stratified analyses were conducted by gender, age, and region. Furthermore, a generalized linear model was applied to explore the impact of heatwave exposure on the association between O3-8 h and mortality from respiratory and circulatory system diseases during the warm season.
      Results The single-day lag effect of O3-8 h exposure on respiratory disease mortality was the strongest at lag 3 d (RR=1.06, 95%CI: 1.02-1.10), and the cumulative lag effect peaked at lag 07 d (RR=1.36, 95%CI: 1.11-1.66). For circulatory disease mortality, the single-day lag effect of O3-8 h exposure was maximized at lag0 d (RR=1.07, 95%CI: 1.03-1.12), with the cumulative lag effect reaching its peak at lag 07 d (RR=1.19, 95%CI: 1.06-1.34). Stratified analyses indicated that the elderly, males, and urban residents were significantly more affected. Moreover, the risk of O3-8 h-related circulatory mortality became more pronounced during heatwave exposure.
      Conclusion Short-term ozone exposure is associated with an increased risk of mortality from respiratory and circulatory system diseases in Beijing. The elderly, males, and urban residents exhibit higher susceptibility, and this association is further strengthened when combined with heatwave exposure. These findings suggest that public health protection measures for vulnerable populations should be emphasized and enhanced when ozone exposure coincides with high-temperature weather.

       

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