2004—2023年甘肃省武威市生态环境脆弱性动态评估及其与人群死亡的关联研究
Dynamic assessment of ecological environment vulnerability and its association with population mortality in Wuwei, Gansu province, China, 2004—2023
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摘要:目的 对甘肃省武威市生态环境脆弱性进行动态评估, 并分析其与人群死亡的关联关系。方法 以武威市一区三县为研究地区, 构建基于生态敏感性-生态恢复力-生态压力度(sensitivity-resilience-pressure, SRP)模型的生态脆弱性评价体系, 利用层次分析-主成分分析(analytic hierarchy process-principal component analysis, AHP-PCA)熵权组合模型, 对武威市2004—2023年的生态环境脆弱性进行动态评估, 在此基础上将武威市划分为高度与低度脆弱地区, 采用χ2检验比较组间死亡率, 并用Joinpoint对数线性回归模型探究死亡率的变化特征。结果 武威市生态脆弱性在空间分布上呈现出西南部及中部较低、北部及东南部较高的特点, 在时间分布上呈现先升高后降低的特点, 全局莫兰指数均在0.88以上, 主要表现为高-高聚集和低-低聚集; 2004—2023年, 武威市重度与中度脆弱区分别减少64.28%与41.16%, 而轻度和微度脆弱区分别增加224.81%和49.45%。2004—2023年间高度与低度生态脆弱地区的死亡率差异具有统计学意义(χ2=272.34, P < 0.001), 高度生态脆弱地区在2013—2023年死亡率年度变化百分比(annual percent change, APC)为8.55%(95%CI: 1.07%~16.58%, P < 0.05), 低度生态脆弱地区在2010—2023年APC为-12.35%(95%CI: -20.86%~-2.92%, P < 0.05)。结论 2004—2023年武威市生态环境脆弱性呈现先升高后降低的趋势, 空间分布具有鲜明的地域差异; 不同生态环境脆弱地区人群死亡率存在差异, 生态环境脆弱性与人群死亡风险存在潜在关联。Abstract:Objective To conduct a dynamic assessment of ecological environment vulnerability in Wuwei, Gansu province, and to analyze its association with population mortality.Methods The study areas included the one district and three counties of Wuwei. An ecological vulnerability assessment system was constructed based on the sensitivity-resilience-pressure model. Using the analytic hierarchy process-principal component analysis entropy weight combination model, the ecological environment vulnerability of Wuwei from 2004 to 2023 was dynamically assessed to divide the district and three counties into high- and low-vulnerability regions. The chi-square test was used to compare mortality rates between groups, and the log-linear Joinpoint regression model was employed to investigate the pattern of mortality rate changes.Results Spatially, the ecological vulnerability in Wuwei was relatively low in the southwest and central region and relatively high in the north and southeast. Temporally, ecological vulnerability increased first and then decreased. The values of global Moran's Index were all above 0.88. High-high clustering and low-low clustering were primarily observed. From 2004 to 2023, the areas with severe and moderate vulnerability in Wuwei decreased by 64.28% and 41.16%, respectively, while the areas with mild and slight vulnerability expanded by 224.81% and 49.45%, respectively. The difference in mortality rate between areas with high and low ecological vulnerability from 2004 to 2023 was statistically significant (χ2=272.34, P < 0.001). The annual percent change in mortality rate for areas with high ecological vulnerability from 2013 to 2023 was 8.55% (95% confidence interval: 1.07%-16.58%, P < 0.05). The annual percent change in mortality rate for areas with low ecological vulnerability from 2010 to 2023 was -12.35% (95% confidence interval: -20.86% to -2.92%, P < 0.05).Conclusion From 2004 to 2023, the vulnerability of the ecological environment in Wuwei increased first and then decreased, with distinct regional differences. The mortality rates differed across areas with varying levels of ecological environment vulnerability, indicating a potential association between ecological environment vulnerability and population mortality risk.
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